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NOVAVAX INFORMATION NEWSLETTER


Below are the most recent items we think are worth sharing with you:

1) Oxford vaccine chief says the R21/Matrix M malaria vaccine is 'nearly at the finish line' and aims for EUA


DETAILS:


• Here are a few excerpts from an article that includes the Oxford vaccine chief providing an update on the malaria shot. A key component of the vaccine is the Novavax adjuvant Matrix-M. Oxford chose Matrix M after deciding it was the best adjuvant. In tests, Matrix M was found to greatly increase immune responses compared to other adjuvants used with the malaria vaccine. The headline of the article is:
Oxford vaccine chief says effective malaria shot is 'nearly at the finish line'

The head of the University of Oxford's pioneering vaccine research centre has revealed that a highly effective shot to combat malaria is “nearly at the finish line”.


Prof Adrian Hill, director at the Jenner Institute, says his team's shot — named the R21/Matrix-M ― could protect against the disease and save thousands of lives every year.


The pioneering drug is currently undergoing high-level research trials in Africa, where malaria kills at a rate of almost one child a minute.

The mosquito-borne disease has seen a resurgence in recent years and is estimated to have killed 620,000 people around the world in 2020, according to the World Health Organisation.


Prof Hill made the comments during a field visit for Phase III trials of R21/Matrix-M in northern Tanzania. Some 4,800 children are involved in clinical trials across Africa and it is hoped an update on the research progress will be released soon.


Results of the Phase II trials released last year showed a high-level efficacy of 77 per cent — slightly above a WHO-specified efficacy goal of 75 per cent.

Scientists say if the drug receives approval, hundreds of millions of doses could be available to help stop the threat of malaria.


“This is what it has all been leading up to,” Mr Hill told the The Times. “People have been at this since 1908.” ....


Ireland-born Prof Hill last year suggested the vaccine should be given the same emergency approval as Covid-19 shots, instead of waiting years for full trials to be completed.


“Nobody’s really ever asked that question before Covid, but we’re going to do so, and have been doing so, and regulators are sounding interested,” he said. ....


Some 241 million cases of malaria disease were recorded worldwide in 2020, 14 million more than a year earlier, according to the WHO.


Here is the link to the news article:

https://www.thenationalnews.com/health/2022/04/25/oxford-vaccine-chief-says-effective-malaria-shot-is-nearly-at-the-finish-line/

In Africa last year more people died of malaria than died of Covid. Hill points out that since Covid vaccines were given EUAs in all countries around the world due to many people dying, and with over 400,000 people dying each year from malaria, it would make sense to give this vaccine EUA.


• Here are the relevant excerpts from an article about the R21/Matrix M vaccine:


The R21 vaccine candidate is produced by expressing recombinant HBsAg virus-like particles in Hansenula polymorpha, comprising the central repeat and the C-terminus of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) fused to the N-terminal end of HBsAg10. R21 was created by the University of Oxford, located in England. ....


R21 was mixed immediately before administration with Matrix-M™, a saponin-based vaccine adjuvant produced by Novavax ABUppsala, Sweden. 


The Matrix-M component of the malaria vaccine will be manufactured and supplied to SII by Novavax. Under Novavax's agreement with Serum Institute, SII has rights to use Matrix-M in the vaccine in regions where the disease is endemic and pay Novavax royalties on its market sales. Additionally, Novavax will have commercial rights to sell and distribute the SII-manufactured vaccine in certain countries, primarily in the travelers' and military vaccine markets.


On April 23, 2021, Adrian Hill, Director of the Jenner Institute and Lakshmi Mittal and Family Professor of Vaccinology at the University of Oxford, and co-author of a non-peer-reviewed paper, said in a press release, ‘These new results support our high expectations for the potential of this vaccine, which we believe is the first to reach the WHO’s goal of a vaccine for malaria with at least 75% efficacy. With the commitment by our commercial partner, the Serum Institute of India, to manufacture at least 200 million doses annually in the coming years, the vaccine has the potential to have major public health impact if licensure is achieved.’ The Phase 2b clinical trial targeted children 5-17 months. ....


Here is the link:
https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/r21-matrix-m-malaria-vaccine


• In addition, here's what an InvestorVillage user, Stakeholder2016, added on the benefits of this to Novavax:


From an older MF report: "The Serum Institute of India (SII) holds the license to the experimental malaria vaccine. It plans to produce at least 200 million doses annually if R21 wins approval or EUA. Novavax will receive royalties on all sales of the vaccine.


Just how much money Novavax might make, though, remains uncertain. SII chairman and managing director Cyrus Poonawalla said that his organization plans to make R21 available after approval "at a very cost-effective price." GlaxoSmithKline charges around $5 per dose for its malaria vaccine.

However, Novavax also will be able to generate revenue in another way from R21. The company will have the right to sell and distribute the malaria vaccine in some countries, primarily targeting travel and military markets."


(The travel vaccine market (all travel vaccines) is projected by estimates to be worth $7.5B, and travel vaccines can cost hundreds of dollars per dose. There also have been reports that Oxford may seek an EUA for this vaccine which some at Oxford have dubbed  the "Matrix-M Vaccine."


The malaria vaccine uses 50ug of Matrix M per dose, which is the same quantity used in the Novavax Covid vaccine. Because it takes 4 doses to be vaccinated, for each person who is vaccinated, Novavax will earn Matrix M revenues from 4 doses. Also, vaccines in the traveler and military markets are usually high-priced. As the only truly effective malaria vaccine, the R21-Matrix M vaccine should sell at a premium price.

Here is the full thread:
https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=193&mn=176210&pt=msg&mid=23154413


2) US Embassy: 200,000 Novavax doses are donated to Thailand, which will track efficacy results


DETAILS:


• Here are excerpts from the official post by the US Embassy and Consulate in Thailand:


The consignment comprising 200,000 doses of Made-in-India Covovax vaccines was presented to H.E. Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Public Health of Thailand on 21 April 2022 in Bangkok. This is the second consignment of vaccines delivered by India under the Quad Vaccine Partnership, after the inaugural delivery to Cambodia took place on 12 April 2022. These vaccines been supplied to fulfill Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s commitment made at the Quad Leaders’ Summit in Washington DC in September 2021 to donate 500,000 doses of COVID vaccines to countries in the Indo-Pacific region.


The Quad Vaccine Partnership was announced by the Quad Leaders at their first Summit on 12 March 2021 to leverage the Quad’s collective strength to ensure equitable access to safe, effective, and quality-assured vaccines. ....


The Government of the Kingdom of Thailand has conveyed its appreciation for the vaccines received from the Quad and for its collective assistance to Thailand. Quad countries have assured Thailand about their desire to extend all possible support to combat the pandemic.



• An important part of this story is that the government of Thailand is going to track efficacy results. As a result, Novavax will have some very current data on efficacy against the current variants. Such data can be useful for marketing and sales:


Officials at the ministry headquarters on Thursday received 200,000 Covovax doses donated by the Indian embassy under an initiative by the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a group of countries that comprise India, Japan, the United States and Australia.


The doses, manufactured in India by Covovax, use the same formula as the Novavax vaccine. It is regarded as India's first Covid-19 protein subunit vaccine.

Ambassadors of the Quad countries were present during a handover ceremony for the doses.

Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul during his speech said the government appreciates the help. 


The vaccine is expected to appeal to those who are still hesitant about which type to get, he said.

Mr Anutin said the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the vaccine for emergency use for people over 18 years old, adding that Covovax is looking to get the vaccine approved for those 12 years or older. ....


Sophon Iamsirithavorn, deputy director-general of the Department of Disease Control, said the department plans to distribute the donated doses to major state-owned hospitals and collect data on the vaccine's efficiency against Covid-19.


View the full news: 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2298498/govt-receives-200k-covovax-dose-lift


3) Lawmakers ask the FDA about the slowness of reviewing Covid vaccines for young children


Here is a clip on the details of a Congressional request to the FDA for an explanation of the delay for the under-5 age group vaccine:


Yesterday, Congress’s Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis sent a letter (PDF) to FDA Commissioner Robert Califf, M.D., requesting a briefing on the status of COVID-19 vaccines for the under 5 age group.

The letter comes after U.S. chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci, M.D., indicated on CNN that the FDA is considering holding off on reviewing Moderna’s vaccine candidate in order to authorize it at the same time as Pfizer’s to “not confuse people” with a staggered rollout, the lawmakers wrote. That could lead to a potential delay of several weeks for Moderna's shot, they said.


The reported timing of the reviews prompted the congressional committee to request a staff briefing by May 9 to gather more information. Rep. James Clyburn, the committee chairman who signed the letter, reminded Califf that up to 1.5% of all child COVID-19 cases result in hospitalization.


Here is the link to the article:
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/congress-requests-fda-explanation-delay-under-5-covid-19-vaccine


4) Novavax currently has an average rating of "Buy" and a consensus price target of $198, which would be a gain of about 300% from the current price


DETAILS: 


• Here are excerpts about the consensus and individual ratings and price targets of Novavax by different firms:


Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX – Get Rating) has received a consensus rating of “Buy” from the nine research firms that are presently covering the company, MarketBeat.com reports. Four equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and four have given a buy rating to the company. The average 12 month price objective among analysts that have covered the stock in the last year is $204.86.


Several equities analysts have weighed in on the stock. Jefferies Financial Group assumed coverage on shares of Novavax in a report on Tuesday, February 22nd. They set a “buy” rating and a $198.00 price target on the stock. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price target on shares of Novavax from $282.00 to $174.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a report on Monday, February 14th. StockNews.com initiated coverage on shares of Novavax in a research report on Thursday, March 31st. They set a “hold” rating on the stock. Cowen initiated coverage on shares of Novavax in a research report on Friday, January 21st. They set an “outperform” rating and a $150.00 price objective on the stock. ....


A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of NVAX. State Street Corp grew its holdings in Novavax by 8.7% during the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 1,899,220 shares of the biopharmaceutical company’s stock worth $271,721,000 after acquiring an additional 152,593 shares during the period.


Here is the article:

https://www.defenseworld.net/2022/04/25/novavax-inc-nasdaqnvax-given-consensus-rating-of-buy-by-brokerages.html


• Moreover, here are a couple of excerpts from an article with the latest price target from analysts at B. Riley:


Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX – Get Rating) had its price target dropped by investment analysts at B. Riley from $250.00 to $203.00 in a report issued on Tuesday, The Fly reports. B. Riley’s price objective would indicate a potential upside of 304.30% from the stock’s current price. ....


According to MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $198.14.


When analysts have a price target that's 500% higher than the current price, it's fairly normal for them to bring it down somewhat. When the share price increases, it's also fairly common for them to increase their price target. Here is the link:

https://www.defenseworld.net/2022/04/26/novavax-nasdaqnvax-price-target-cut-to-203-00-by-analysts-at-b-riley.html


5) 60% of Americans have at least partial antibodies that indicate a past Covid infection, according to the CDC


In a past newsletter, we reported that infection from Omicron does not provide much protection against re-infection. Omicron has a unique mutation that causes it to self-destruct a portion of the spike protein, making it harder for the immune system to produce useful neutralizing antibodies. Here is a clip describing what the CDC reports about past infections in the US:


At a briefing for reporters on Tuesday, the CDC's Dr. Kristie Clarke said so many people caught omicron over the winter that almost 60% of everyone in the U.S. now have antibodies to the virus in their blood.

That number is even higher for children — almost 75% of children 11 and younger have antibodies to the virus.

Clarke said the finding means many people have at least some immunity to the virus. But CDC officials stressed that people should still get vaccinated, because vaccination provides the strongest, broadest protection against getting seriously ill. Immunity provided by previous infection may or may not be as protective against severe disease.

The CDC also said that cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, going up 23% last week to 44,416 a day. Deaths continue a months-long decline to 314 a day, or 13% less than the week before. Hospitalizations are on the uptick at 1,629 a day, up 7% over the previous week, according to CDC Director Rochelle Walensky.

About 1.5% of the U.S. population lives in communities where there is a high prevalence of COVID at the present time, with 6.5% in medium prevalence areas and the rest (92%) in communities with low levels of COVID.


As a reminder, hospitalizations usually lag cases by 1 to 2 weeks, and deaths usually lag hospitalizations by about 2 weeks. Here is the article:

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/26/1094817774/covid-19-infections-us-most-americans


6) Study: Mix-and-match heterologous booster doses provide much higher protection than boosting with the same vaccine. 


Yet another study has found that mix-and-match heterologous boosting is much more effective than homologous boosting, which is boosting using the same vaccine as the primary series. Here are a few excerpts from
a large-scale prospective cohort study from The Lancet:


Policy makers urgently need evidence of the effectiveness of additional vaccine doses and its clinical spectrum for individuals with complete primary immunisation schedules, particularly in countries where the primary schedule used inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. ....


We calculated an adjusted vaccine effectiveness (weighted stratified Cox model) in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 of 78·8% (95% CI 76·8–80·6) for a three-dose schedule with CoronaVac, 96·5% (96·2–96·7) for a BNT162b2 booster, and 93·2% (92·9–93·6) for an AZD1222 booster. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death was 86·3% (83·7–88·5), 92·2% (88·7–94·6), and 86·7% (80·5–91·0) for a homologous CoronaVac booster, 96·1% (95·3–96·9), 96·2% (94·6–97·3), and 96·8% (93·9–98·3) for a BNT162b2 booster, and 97·7% (97·3–98·0), 98·9% (98·5–99·2), and 98·1% (97·3–98·6) for an AZD1222 booster. ....


Our results suggest that a homologous or heterologous booster dose for individuals with a complete primary vaccination schedule with CoronaVac provides a high level of protection against COVID-19, including severe disease and death. Heterologous boosters showed higher vaccine effectiveness than a homologous booster for all outcomes, providing additional support for a mix-and-match approach. ....


We assessed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 and COVID-19 outcomes (hospitalisation, admission to the intensive care unit, and death) between treated individuals (three doses) and non-treated individuals (unvaccinated), adjusting for known demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical confounders by inverse probability of treatment weighting. We found that a homologous or heterologous booster dose significantly increased vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 and COVID-19 outcomes.


Compared with no vaccination, the adjusted vaccine effectiveness with a homologous booster was 78·8% against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, 86·3% against hospitalisation, 92·2% against ICU admission, and 86·7% against death. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness with a heterologous BNT162b2 booster dose was 96·5% against COVID-19, 96·1% against hospitalisation, 96·2% against ICU admission, and 96·8% against death. Effectiveness with an AZD1222 booster dose was 93·2% against COVID-19, 97·7% against hospitalisation, 98·9% against ICU admission, and 98·1% against death. 


View the study here:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(22)00112-7/fulltext


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